Eight Predictions for the 2026-27 Season
I recently had a post looking ahead to the 2026-27 NHL season, comparing eight teams to eight horror movies. It struck me that while they aren’t all overtly negative, some are, so I wanted to balance that out today by giving eight (good! positive!) predictions for the upcoming campaign. Let’s look at some forwards, defencemen, and goalies we should be monitoring closely.
Data from Evolving Hockey or Frozen Tools, unless otherwise indicated.
1 – First-Time 40-Goal Forward: Alexis Lafrenière
After the Olympic break last season, or post-Artemi Panarin, Lafrenière went on an absolute heater with 12 goals and 25 points in 25 games. That stretch saw the winger earn the most even-strength ice time of any Rangers forward (30.5%) and skate consistently on the top power-play unit. That pushed him to nearly 19 minutes a game, and though they signed Pavel Dorofeyev in the offseason, Lafrenière is now the team’s top winger.
Over the last five seasons, there have been 76 instances of a 40-goal season, and just one (Brayden Point in 2024-25) did so with fewer than 200 shots on goal. Even in Lafrenière’s post-Olympic heater, he averaged just under 2.3 shots per game, or about 187 every 82 games. At that rate, he would need to shoot over 20% to score 40 goals. All the same, he finally has the role and ice time to reach his offensive upside, and we’ll see it this season.
2 – First-Time 20-Goal Defenceman: Brandon Montour
After returning from injury in the middle of January, Montour was back over the 23-minute mark per game, a rate he has fallen below in each of the past two full seasons. He put up 107 shots in 37 games over that span, second-most among all defencemen behind Darren Raddysh. That is the kind of ice time and shot volume that leads to 20-goal seasons.
Playing for Seattle is a problem as they lack superstar offensive talent, but that also means there should be plenty of opportunity for Montour to join the rush or cycle and get his scoring chances. The Kraken are also very thin on the blue line, considering the potential decline of Adam Larsson and lack of bottom-pair options. Montour might get even more than 23 minutes a night, and he has the offensive skills to get good looks at the net.
3 – First-Time 100-Point Forward: Robert Thomas
This doesn’t feel like a big stretch considering Thomas has averaged 88 points every 82 games across the last three years, but getting from roughly 90 points to roughly 100 points is a leap reserved for great players to become elite players, and that’s what Robert Thomas is – an elite player. With the ascensions of Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud, he also has the line mates to give him the offensive support he needs to get to that production level.
The issue for Thomas is the St. Louis power play. They were no better than average, and most often in the bottom-10 of the league, in each of the last four seasons. That led to Thomas averaging around 23 power-play points every 82 games in that span. It is a good mark, but 100-point forwards usually post 30+ power-play points (recent exceptions include Mark Scheifele and Martin Nečas). If the PP can be average, or even good, everything else is in place for him to get there.
4 – First-Time 60-Point Defenceman: Luke Hughes
Hughes has averaged 47 points every 82 games for his career. He has done that averaging a shade under 20 power-play points every 82 games while skating under 22 minutes a night. Last year, he was over 23 minutes a game, but missed time due to injury, and the Devils really struggled to score at 5-on-5.
If Jack Hughes can avoid amputating his hand while having dinner at a steakhouse, the Devils look poised for a rebound. The additions of Anthony Mantha and Luke Evangelista give them three scoring lines, and Luke is set for a consistent top PP role. Things can change fast, but if the Devils’ offence lives up to its reputation, and Hughes the Younger holds onto the PP role, he’s in line for a career year.
5 – First-Time 30-Win Goalie: Joel Hofer
Over the last three years, there have been 40 goalies who’ve faced at least 2700 shots. Among those 40 goalies, Hofer is 10th by fewest shots needed for every Goal Saved Above Expected, ahead of names like Linus Ullmark, Karel Vejmelka, and Jake Oettinger. He has won 56% of his starts in that span despite the Blues being a playoff team just once in those three years.
Jordan Binnington can throw a wrench into this, but he’s 33 years old and in the last year of his contract. The Blues want to reach the playoffs and if Binnington performs anywhere like 2025-26, then Hofer will get two-thirds of the starts. That kind of starting volume, on a team that should be better, will get Hofer to the 30-win plateau.
6 – Breakout Forward: Quinton Byfield
‘Breakout’ means different things to different people, and there’s a good argument that Byfield is already a top-30 or top-50 forward in the league, but the fact remains he has yet to score 25 goals or reach 60 points in any season. Those measures are what get noticed, so his ‘breakout’ is still ahead of him.
Byfield is now the unquestioned top centre for the Kings, and that means a lot of offensive ice time with Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe, or both. It also means over 20 minutes a game with a consistent top PP role and plenty of empty-net ice time. After the Olympics, Byfield posted 19 points in 24 games, or an 84-game rate of 67 points. That was with just three power-play points, too. He now has everything he needs to get to 30 goals and 70 points.
7 – Breakout Defenceman: Jamie Drysdale
As with Robert Thomas earlier, for a true ‘breakout’ from Drysdale, the Flyers’ power play has to be better. It is remarkable how bad it’s been for years as the team’s highest rate of PP goals per 60 minutes in the last five seasons was 5.66 in 2025-26, which was dead last in the league. Yes, Philadelphia’s power play, which ranked 32nd out of 32 teams in 2025-26, was their best power play of the last five years.
That means there’s nowhere to go but up, and Drysdale is a big part of that. After fighting serious injuries earlier in his career, he missed just four games last year. It is also easy to forget he’s just 24 years old, so he’s in the midst of prime offensive years. With a rebound effort from Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone can help improve the Flyers’ power play, Drysdale is in line for a massive improvement on his career-best of 32 points.
8 – Breakout Goalie: Spencer Knight
We could say last year was Knight’s true breakout, reaching 55 starts and finishing sixth by Goals Saved Above Expected. However, a bad offensive team in front of him limited Knight to just 19 wins in 55 starts, and goalies with under 20 wins will rarely draw attention.
Chicago should be a lot better offensively with the emergence of both Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov, the offseason trade for Bowen Byram, and the signing of Patrick Kane. Once Connor Bedard is healthy, they might be – dare I say – a slightly below-average offensive team rather than outright bad. It should help Knight rack up some extra wins as he’s the unquestioned number-1 goalie for the franchise. If that happens and he gets somewhere between 25-30 wins, the wider NHL fanbase will start to take notice.
The NHL season is here, so cheers to all the fans hoping their teams have good years or even contend for a Stanley Cup. Except Maple Leafs fans. Fuck that.
