10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - September 22, 2026
Welcome back to another week of ’10 Interesting (To Me) Stats’. We have just one week left until the NHL regular season and my look ahead to the 2026-27 campaign rolls on.
Having completed my projections, I thought it’d be a good idea to see which teams are expected to take a step forward in their goal scoring. We are simply going to take the average player goals per game from each team in 2025-26, compare it to the projected goal scoring in 2026-27, and see where each team lands.
Data for my projections are from Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, All Three Zones, and Frozen Tools. We are excluding the Florida Panthers (for obvious reasons) and the Anaheim Ducks (because I have talked about their skaters ad nauseum this summer), but both are expected for some goal-scoring increase.
1 – Chicago Blackhawks
Last year, the Blackhawks finished tied for 31st in goals per game, so it’s hard to get worse. There is a lot of expected improvement here, though:
It should be noted that my projections assume 84 games played from roster NHL players, and we know Connor Bedard won’t play 84 games. The good news is that even if I drop Bedard’s games played to 70, the team still has a top 3 goal-scoring improvement. All told, the expected rise should take them from nearly the bottom of the league to just below-average.
Chicago’s likely offensive rise speaks to the expected impact from rookies Anton Frondell and Roman Kantserov, the additions of Bowen Byram and Patrick Kane, and growth from young skaters like Frank Nazar and Artyom Levshunov.
2 – Los Angeles Kings
This one I’m a bit skeptical of because on one hand, the Kings have Quinton Byfield and Brandt Clarke getting to their prime years, they added Artemi Panarin last season and added Mats Zuccarello in the offseason. On the other, the bottom half of Los Angeles’ blue line is a train wreck and that should hamper their scoring.
All that aside, there is a big expected goal-scoring improvement here:
In 2025-26, the Kings finished 29th by goals per game. With improvements from their young skaters, Panarin being a difference-maker, and Zuccarello adding some good playmaking, there should be more goals in 2026-27, pushing them out of the basement.
3 – New Jersey Devils
There are a few teams who are very clear candidates for big scoring improvements, and New Jersey is one of them. They shot 9.4% in 2025-26, which was 31st in the league, and that was without Jack Hughes for 21 games. Assuming this team stays healthy and gets good contributions from the additions of Luke Evangelista, Anthony Mantha, and Evan Rodrigues, they are in line for a big scoring leap:
If they get this kind of scoring jump, they will be a fringe top 10 scoring roster. This team has generally had two good scoring lines, but the three forward additions this summer should enable them to assemble a productive third scoring line. There is a lot of talent all through this squad, so if they avoid the injury bug, their goal rates should climb substantially.
4 – Winnipeg Jets
There are teams whose appearance on this list surprised me, and the Jets are one of them. The top of the roster was very productive last year, but the middle of the roster was not, and improvements from that second class of scorer is why Winnipeg shows up:
Again, it’s not the top of the roster that is driving the change here but the middling options. Rookie Viggo Björck is projected for 39 points in 84 games, which might not seem like a lot, but that would have been the highest point total for any non-top line Jets forward last year. With small improvements from Cole Perfetti and Adam Lowry, as well as a healthy Dylan Samberg, the Jets’ secondary scoring should be better, and that is providing a higher goal rate for the team, bringing them from the bottom 10 to roughly league average.
5 – Utah Mammoth
If the Jets are a surprise, the Mammoth are not. With more growth from Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, the additions of Anders Lee and Vincent Trocheck, and a great top-line duo in Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz, Utah’s group is set for a sizeable jump in their goal rate:
Keep in mind that Utah finished tied for 10th in team goal rate last season. The improvement shown here is a little over 10%, which takes them from 10th in the league to a top 3 roster. They might not have the super-elite scorers like Edmonton and Colorado, but they do have a lot of high-end talent, and a deep forward group. They are kind of like the Carolina Hurricanes in that sense; Utah is a team whose strength is the sum of its parts, not its individual parts, and if they can be a fringe top 10 defensive squad again, this kind of jump takes them from ‘playoff team’ to ‘Stanley Cup contender’.
6 – Seattle Kraken
Of the 10 teams discussed today, this is the second biggest surprise to me behind Winnipeg. The idea here is that Mackie Samoskevich and Bobby McMann are an upgrade over Jaden Schwartz and Eeli Tolvanen, while centres Matty Beniers and Shane Wright take another step forward. Those small increments, on top of a healthy Jared McCann, means more goals for Seattle:
Growth like this still leaves the Kraken as a below-average scoring team, but it does bring them out of the bottom 5, and even the bottom 10. This isn’t a case where the expectation is they’re suddenly even an average offensive roster, but small improvements in 4-5 roster spots means a noticeable improvement to the overall team output. There is still room for growth beyond that, but it all comes down to Samoskevich, Beniers, and Wright fulfilling their respective potential.
7 – San Jose Sharks
The Sharks have already seen their quantum goal-scoring leap as their goals per game in 2025-26 improved by 20% from the year before. However, they still have a lot of young players with an upward trajectory, get a full year from Kiefer Sherwood and Mason Marchment, and overhauled their blue line. Put it all together and the goals are going up again:
This isn’t a massive leap, but it is a jump of about 20 goals overall. Based off last year’s standings, that alone would make them a fringe playoff team in the West. If they can have that kind of scoring jump and improve defensively? Then they are firmly in the playoff mix. The battle between San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles for third place in the Pacific will be fun to watch.
8 – Philadelphia Flyers
There is a group of teams expected to add somewhere between 2-5% of goals per game and one of them is a Flyers roster who had a tremendous 2025-26 campaign:
The reasons for this are obvious: a full year from Porter Martone, a healthy season from Tyson Foerster, a rebound year from Matvei Michkov, and stalwarts in Trevor Zegras and Travis Konecny. They are kind of like Utah in the sense that they don’t have superstars at the top of the roster, but they do have the talent to assemble three good scoring lines, and that kind of depth matters.
A big question for me comes down to Cam York and Jamie Drysdale. If those two can be a good-to-great second pair for the Flyers, and the forward group grows as expected, this could be an above-average offensive squad in 2026-27.
9 – New York Rangers
New York’s 5-on-5 goal scoring crashed last year to 2.3 goals per 60 minutes, down 15% from the year before. They did trade Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, but healthy years from J.T. Miller and Adam Fox help balance that a lot. The Rangers greatly improved their defence by adding Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi, they signed Pavel Dorofeyev to a long-term deal, and added solid scoring depth in Oliver Bjorkstrand and Eeli Tolvanen. Put all that together and there’s a modest scoring jump:
This isn’t a huge rise and would leave them as a slightly below-average scoring team. That speaks to the sizeable loss of Panarin and Trocheck, but the fact that there is an expected improvement at all despite those losses speaks to the importance of their additions. If Gabriel Perreault, Alexis Lafrenière, and Will Cuylle can be a bit better, the Rangers could very well be an above-average scoring team.
10 – Toronto Maple Leafs
It isn’t a wonder why the Leafs are seeing a jump here; the projections assume a healthy Auston Matthews, they drafted Gavin McKenna, they added Jack Roslovic, Easton Cowan is a year older, and they made significant changes on the blue line with the acquisitions of Darren Raddysh and Emil Andrae. A healthy roster with those notable offensive improvements means a goal-scoring jump from Toronto:
Just this modest jump means they’ll be a solidly above-average scoring team. If they want to make a real leap and get back into the top 10 of the league, they have to be much better than 24th by power-play goals per game. If everything holds constant, the Leafs should be an above-average scoring team, but an improved power play would see Toronto regain their reputation as one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the league.
Until next week.
