10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - March 18
Welcome back for another edition of ‘10 Interesting Stats’. We don’t really have a theme this week, and it’s just a hodge-podge of stuff that seems interesting, so it’s really a return to form here as we gear up for the postseason.
As always, player data from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey. Tracking Data is from AllThreeZones and viz is from HockeyViz.
1 – I Was Saying “Stuuu-urns”
Across the 2022-2023 and 2023-24 seasons, Ottawa centre Tim Stützle averaged 0.82 goals and 1.46 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. So far in the 2024-25 season, those numbers are down to 0.72 and 1.21, respectively. What gives?
There has been a change in Ottawa as far as how the team is creating offence, and to Stützle in particular. Of 141 forwards with at least 200 tracked minutes at 5-on-5 this season, and 400 tracked minutes across the prior two seasons, Stützle has seen the biggest drop in offence off the rush:
It is hard for Senators fans to argue with the results as the team is on their way to a playoff appearance, but it’s certainly not helping Stützle’s 5-on-5 production.
2 – McDecline
On the topic of drops, a lot has been made about Edmonton’s offensive issues this season. While these things are multi-factorial, it is worth noting how Connor McDavid’s playmaking has declined.
From the same tracking data, McDavid led all forwards by high-danger passes per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons with 4.11 HD Passes/60. That mark was 16% higher than the next-closest player (Sidney Crosby). So far in the 2024-25 season, that number has dropped to 2.34. Among forwards who posted an HDPass rate at least double the league average from 2022-2024, it is the third-largest drop:
Jesper Bratt’s assist rate has been just fine, but both Alex Tuch and Nikolaj Ehlers have seen sizable declines in actual assists/60 at 5-on-5, as has McDavid. There has been a legitimate, negative change in McDavid’s playmaking this season, and it’s not a good sign for Edmonton as they prepare for another deep playoff run.
3 – Secondary Rocket Boosters
Teams like the Winnipeg Jets don’t sit at the top of the league standings for any single reason. The top line has been very productive, Connor Hellebuyck has been elite again, but their depth has also helped carry this team. Winnipeg’s second line of Nikolaj Ehlers-Vladislav Namestnikov-Cole Perfetti has been tremendous from basically Day 1 of the regular season: By both goal share and expected goal share at 5-on-5, they compare to two of the best top-6 lines in the West this season, as well as arguably the best top line in the East:
In fact, the Jets have a 53.2% expected goal share with their top line off the ice at 5-on-5, and an actual goal share over 61%. This Jets team has been deep all season, and they’ll need that depth to hold up for a chance at the Stanley Cup.
4 – I’m Helping Two
This is for no other reason than as a semi-reminder to myself to look into this a bit more in the offseason.
Goal scoring at 5-on-5 is down, we have covered that here before. However, it is worth mentioning one interesting aspect: Forwards are seeing their secondary assist rates decline faster than their goal rate. Here are forward goals and secondary assist rates from the 2022-23 season, then those rates combined from the last two years, and the changes therein:
As defencemen become more involved in the offence, this makes some sense, but it also has implications for expectations of production from forwards. We are talking somewhere around 175-200 fewer assists at 5-on-5 for forwards compared to just two years ago.
5 - Jesperi Kotkassistniemi (I’m sorry)
Carolina centre Jesperi Kotkaniemi is rounding out his fourth season with the team. While he hasn’t become a star, it’s worth noting his goals/60 at 5-on-5 is 0.76 as a Hurricane, higher than Jordan Staal and Martin Nečas, and a 59th percentile mark among regular forwards. That is a mid-tier second-line rate, so it’s just fine.
Kotkaniemi has also provided a second-line rate of assists at 5-on-5 in that time, too. When looking for comparable forwards by goals and assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last four years, it is an interesting list:
Add in solid defence, and this is a player who seems to be very underrated for what he’s done. He is having arguably the best season of his career and if he can keep playing as he has, he can be a difference-maker for Carolina in the playoffs.
6 – A Hall Of An Effort
Staying in Carolina, Taylor Hall is on a bit of a hot streak with two goals and five points in his last five games. Aside from the recent production, Hall has been excellent in Carolina: Through 17 games, the Hurricanes are outscoring the opposition 12-5 when he’s on the ice and he is +4.7% by expected goal share relative to his teammates. In fact, he and Kotkaniemi have helped Carolina outscore the opposition 9-4 in their 149 minutes together at 5-on-5, and are controlling play at both ends of the ice:
Coming from Chicago, Hall has rebounded to produce at a second-line rate in Carolina, and his line has been stellar defensively, too. This is a good sign for the Hurricanes, though how they fare in the postseason will be the ultimate determinant.
7 – Let Your Backbone Slide
Through Vegas’ first 40 games of the season, they had 28 wins and 59 points, both leading the league. Since then, they are 11-11-5, or tied for 20th in the league. It is hard to not look at this decline and focus on their top-line duo of Jack Eichel and Mark Stone.
Over those 27 recent games, Stone and Eichel have skated 280 minutes together at 5-on-5. In those minutes, Vegas has been outshot (+124/-129) and outscored (+8/-11):
Eichel and Stone are both elite players so they should be able to figure it out, but there is less than a month until the season ends. Vegas fans would like to see them solve their problem sooner rather than later.
8 – Turn That Frown Upside Down
One Vegas forward who hasn’t been struggling is in-season addition Brandon Saad. Since joining the team in early February, he leads them with five goals at 5-on-5. When looking across the league, he is one of a handful of forwards with a 90th percentile rank by both goals and individual expected goals per 60 minutes (minimum 175 minutes):
He needs to do this in the playoffs and not just the final couple months of the regular season, but if he can, this may be the replacement for Jonathan Marchessault’s 5-on-5 scoring that Vegas has been looking for all season.
9 – Get You A Man Who Can Do Both
The Chicago Blackhawks are a pit of despair from which hope, optimism, and prosperity cannot escape, but it’s not all bad as Ilya Mikheyev is having a very solid season for the team. His 0.87 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is second among their forwards (minimum of 500 minutes), he has the lowest expected goals against rate, and the lowest actual goals against rate of any non-fourth line forwards. Here is an interesting comparable forward by goals, assists, team-relative expected goals against, and team-relative actual goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last four years:
He won’t stand out on a team this bad, but Mikheyev has been quite good for the Blackhawks, has been good for years, and is an interesting offseason name to keep an eye on for a potential trade (if not at the deadline next season).
10 – I’s The B’yfield
Quinton Byfield scored the overtime winner for Los Angeles on Saturday night, giving him goals in six straight games. With 19 points in his last 20 games, he has been on a nice little heater as he’s established himself as the team’s new top-line centre. It is a continuation of a very good season last year and when looking backwards to the 2013-14 season, there is one name that compares to Byfield by goals, assists, shot attempts, hits, and team-relative expected goal differential in a player’s age-21 and age-22 seasons:
Alex Tuch playing in Buffalo can lead to inconsistent play, but when Tuch is (or was) at his best, he is (or was) a genuine top-line, all-star forward. I still think Byfield has an even higher ceiling than that, but if the worst-case scenario is Byfield becomes what Tuch was (and still is), then he is a high-impact player, year in, year out.
Until next week.
