10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - October 14
1 – Kell Surprise
Utah had a game on Monday night in Chicago, so things have changed slightly, but what stands out about their first two games is that winger Clayton Keller didn’t just lead his team by share of the total even-strength ice time at just under 40%, it’s that he is way ahead of any other player in the league with at least two games (Connor Bedard at 36.5%):
To put this into perspective, Kirill Kaprizov and Nathan MacKinnon tied for the lead in EVTOI% last season at 36.5% while Keller was at 30.5%. Keller won’t stay over the 39% mark, but Utah lost Nick Bjugstad in free agency, Matias Maccelli and Josh Doan were both traded, and they have a couple of injuries up front. For the time being, Keller and the rest of Utah’s top forwards are going to get all the ice time they can handle.
2 – Changing Fortune
It doesn’t take long to change the perception of a player. Anaheim forward Mason McTavish needed a new contract and signed one with just a week left in the preseason. He only got one preseason game in so there was a reason for the coaching staff to ease him into the 2025-26 season. That is not happening as McTavish is 1 of 28 forwards in the league to be earning at least 34% of his team’s ice time while leading the Anaheim forward group:
McTavish is off to a great start with four assists in two games, and his line has totaled four goals and nine points. Those games were against Seattle and San Jose, so not exactly a murderer’s row of opponents, but it does indicate that maybe this Anaheim team is a cut above the dregs of the league.
3 – Isle See You at the Top
The New York Islanders had one of the worst power plays in the league in 2024-25 with only Anaheim being worse by goals per minute and power play percentage. They are already off to a much better start in that regard, scoring twice on six power plays thus far. One reason for that might be that they are heavily using their top PP unit as Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Kyle Palmieri are three of the four forwards across the league to be earning at least 90% of the team’s power-play share:
Last year, the only Islanders forward to play at least 50 games and earn 60% of the PPTOI share was Horvat at 63.5%. With a healthy Barzal, it appears the team wants to give their top forwards a real chance at being difference-makers on the power play, and that’s great news for their fantasy hockey managers.
4 – Golden Opportunities
With the addition of Mitch Marner, the Vegas Golden Knights decided to run a five-forward power play to start the season, and it’s hard to argue with the results so far as they are 4/13 with the man advantage. We should take a little bit of caution though as of the 82 forwards with at least 8 minutes of PPTOI so far this season, that top Vegas PP unit has 5 of 9 players league-wide with an on-ice shooting percentage over 25%:
For some perspective, there were 198 forwards last season to skate at least 100 PP minutes, and none were over 26%. Just 2 of those 198 forwards were over 25% (both from Chicago), and just 17 of the 198 forwards were over 20%. That this Vegas group is talented enough to be near the top of the league won’t be a surprise, just don’t expect them to keep converting at a 26-27% clip.
5 – Not a Junker
One of the top performers of the first week of the season has to be Ottawa’s Shane Pinto. Heading into Monday afternoon’s game against Nashville, Pinto was 1 of 6 forwards league-wide to have an on-ice expected goal share at 5-on-5 (xGF%) of at least 70% while having an individual shot attempt rate (iCF/60) of at least 20.0 per 60 minutes and an individual expected goals rate (ixG/60) of at least 1.0:
With Pinto on the ice, the Sens outscored their opponents 4-1 and he had four goals and one assist in those two games. It hasn’t been a soft schedule, either, as both were road games against the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers. He won’t stay at the levels he’s at right now, but if he can perform as a top-line centre while skating as Ottawa’s second-line centre, he gives them a great 1-2 centre punch with Tim Stützle.
6 – It’s Not a Bra, It’s a Man-zeau
One of the big highlights of the first week is Pittsburgh’s Justin Brazeau with three goals in three games as the Penguins are off to a 2-1 start. He won’t be a goal-per-game player (a bold prediction, I know) but it should be said that he’s one of the best in the league at creating dangerous shots with limited volume. In fact, since the start of the 2023-24 season, there are 368 forwards with at least 1000 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. Among those 368 forwards, Brazeau is 8th by fewest shot attempts per expected goal, nestled between two excellent net-front players:
There are limits to his upside as he likely doesn’t get ice time with the empty net (at least not yet) and is not on the top PP unit, but if he can maintain close to a league-average shooting percentage, he could be a very efficient scorer while skating next to Evgeni Malkin.
7 – The Lum-Bus
OUR Columbus Blue Jackets have just one PP goal on four opportunities in their first two games, but the notable part is their preposterous shot volume. In fact, there are just six forwards in the league with an on-ice shot attempt rate over 200 per 60 minutes to start the year, and four of them are in Columbus:
This level obviously won’t persist, but Columbus was 23rd by PP goals per minute last season, and below average by shot rate. If they can be league-average-or-better in this respect, it will go a long way to getting them to the postseason.
8 – Kings of Power
Staying with power-play shot volume, there are 17 forwards in the league with an on-ice shot attempt rate of at least 150 per 60 minutes, and the five forwards from Los Angeles’ top PP unit are all among those 17 forwards:
After acquiring Andrei Kuzmenko last year, this Kings top PP converted on 23.9% of their PP opportunities, up from a paltry 15% before the trade. So far this season, they are at 20%. If they keep this up, it’s hard to see them getting away from the five-forward power play anytime soon.
9 – Big Bad Bruins
Just last week, this column talked about how Boston defenceman Mason Lohrei had the tools, but not the results, to be a breakout blue liner for Boston. So far, so good for Lohrei and partner Charlie McAvoy as among 77 defence pairs with at least 20 minutes together at 5-on-5, they are 1 of 5 pairings with at least a 60% shot attempt share and 70% expected goal share:
Importantly, only about 35% of their ice time has been with David Pastrňák on the ice, so it’s not as if they’re relying on a lot of minutes with the team’s top forward. Boston’s next five games include Tampa Bay, Vegas, Colorado, Utah, and Florida, so we should have a sense of how good this pair actually is a couple weeks from now.
10 – Lynchpin
Colorado’s success likely lies with the second line of Gabriel Landeskog, Brock Nelson, and Valeri Nichushkin if only because Nelson is their only second-line centre option and Landeskog is playing his first full season in years. They have yet to score as a trio at 5-on-5, but they do have a higher shot-attempt share than Colorado’s top line:
The key here is they play very little with Cale Makar with just 15% of their 5-on-5 time coming with the superstar defenceman on the ice. That they’re driving the play like this largely with the Avalanche’s depth blue liners is a good sign, though let’s give it a month before making any bold proclamations.
Until next week.
