10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - December 22
This is a couple days early because Monday is a travel day for me as I’m visiting family for Christmas. So, consider this an early present. Stats are as of Saturday morning (December 21st). Player data from Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey. Player tracking data from AllThreeZones, and viz from HockeyViz.
1 – Super-Powered Plays
There was an interesting post from Shawn Ferris (independent analyst and works for Evolving Hockey) this week looking at how outlier shooting percentages among forwards has increased over the last few years.
That post got me digging into shooting percentages on the power play. I looked at forwards who had at least 50 minutes of power play time at the Christmas break of the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, as of New Year’s Eve in 2021-22, as well as so far this season. And yes, in fact, the share of forwards shooting at least 25% on the power play is much, much higher (23.2%) than recent seasons (never more than 18%):
High shooting percentages have become the focus of teams over the last half-decade, and that shows up clearly with the man advantage.
2 – More Like, Jonathan Huber-Goal
With a goal in Calgary’s overtime loss on Thursday night, Jonathan Huberdeau now has 12 goals in 33 games on the season – he had 12 goals in 81 games last year. Obviously, shooting 21.4% at 5-on-5 is the big reason why, but it’s worth noting his line with Nazem Kadri and Martin Pospisil has been very good at creating quality shots in their 106 minutes together at 5-on-5, being 23% above the league average by expected goals-for per 60 minutes:
Huberdeau is skating nearly 20 minutes a game over his last 10 games as Calgary may have found a legitimate top scoring line. Calgary’s next 20 games include two against each of Chicago, Anaheim, and St. Louis, with games against San Jose, Nashville, Buffalo, Seattle, and Detroit. This could be a very productive trio for the next couple of months.
3 – More Like, Kirill Marchenk-WHOA
With two assists on Thursday night, Columbus forward Kirill Marchenko is now a point-per-game player with 11 goals and 22 assists in 33 games. He is also shooting just 4.8% on the power play after shooting 20.5% across his first 137 games of his career, so there’s an argument he’s being short-changed a bit.
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, by Evolving Hockey’s Goals Above Replacement per 60 minutes measure, he’s inside the 81st percentile of regular forwards, and has some notable comparable names:
Marchenko doesn’t turn 25 years old until the summer. He is in his prime and has rounded into a bona fide top-line scoring winger.
4 – Pod Save The Oilers
When Edmonton traded for winger Vasily Podkolzin in the offseason, expectations were very modest. However, he’s currently sporting 1.7 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is a career-high and 39% higher than his average in Vancouver. He has also formed an excellent second-line duo with Leon Draisaitl as the team is outscoring the opposition 13-9 in their time together at 5-on-5 while being utterly dominant at both ends:
It is notable they have done this with a rotation of right wingers: each of Viktor Arvidsson (92), Kasperi Kapanen (60), and Connor Brown (43) have spent at least 40 minutes with Podkolzin-Draisaitl. Watch out if this line starts finishing on more than 7% of their shots.
5 – Evangelistical Conversion
Nashville continues to suck, but they have found a top line that can score, and also found a successful third line. They put Mark Jankowski and Luke Evangelista together on November 27th and since that time, Nashville has an absurd 67.4% expected goal share with the duo on the ice. Thanks to a 933 PDO, they’re not carrying a positive goal differential, but that duo has both been among the best in the league by expected goal share at 5-on-5 relative to their respective team in that span:
If they keep playing anywhere close to this level, their luck will turn, and they can be a much-needed dominant depth line.
6 – Useful Senators
A month ago, this column talked about Ottawa’s Adam Gaudette, his production, and his positive impact on the depth forwards that had generally struggled: With the Senators’ top two lines and Gaudette off the ice, the third and fourth lines carried a 46.6% expected goal share at 5-on-5 and were outscored 11-4.
That has changed of late. The third line of Shane Pinto, Michael Amadio, and Nick Cousins has a 52.6% expected goal share in over 100 minutes together in that span and are outscoring the opposition 4-1 while being solid at both ends:
They aren’t blowing the doors off, but being just a ‘good’ third line is a huge improvement, and one of the factors of the team’s recent hot streak.
7 - An Erik Brännström Update
In early November, Vancouver defenceman Erik Brännström’s positive impact on Vancouver’s depth defence pairs was covered here. Things have not been good lately as he’s been a healthy scratch at times, and the team has been crushed with him on the ice: 27.5% expected goal share and 20.6% actual goal share at 5-on-5 in his last 10 games. Across his first 16 games, both his expected and actual goal shares were over 58%, so the drop has been drastic and immediate.
Here is an idea why that happened.
J.T. Miller took a leave of absence from the team on November 18th and did not return until December 12th. Between those two dates, Brännström spent less than 30% of his time on the ice with Elias Pettersson, and over 70% of his time with either Vincent Desharnais or Tyler Myers as a defence partner. By expected goals-for measures, those two are among the three worst defencemen on Vancouver’s blue line:
This is just a guess, but with two poor puck movers as defence partners, and largely playing with depth forwards, Brännström had too much on his plate individually. The team is now healthy and shopping for a competent top-4 defenceman, so let’s see if Brännström can turn things around.
8 – Hey, Karl, Good To See You
On October 29th, the Pittsburgh Penguins bottomed out with a 3-7-1 record. Since then, they are 12-7-4, ranking 12th in the league by points percentage. Improved goaltending is one reason why, but the play of Erik Karlsson is another.
Through those first 11 games, Karlsson was on the ice for 4.0 expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5, and 4.5 actual goals against/60, both marks being among the worst in the league. Since then, both the expected and actual goals against rates have improved significantly to 2.5/60 and 2.9/60, respectively. Karlsson is the only Penguins defenceman with a positive 5-on-5 goal differential in that span, and is among the elite in the league by relative expected and actual goal share:
There are still struggles whenever Sidney Crosby is off the ice, but Karlsson has been a lot better in the defensive end regardless, and it’s helped Pittsburgh get back in the playoff race.
9 – The Other Wyatt
When a team is rebuilding, they need their high draft picks to turn into stars. If they really want to take a step forward, though, they need some pleasant surprises, and defenceman Wyatt Kaiser has been exactly that for Chicago, at least until his AHL demotion on Friday.
Kaiser was a third-round pick in the 2020 draft and is just 22 years old. Given his role, and his even strength expected goal and actual goal differential rates, he compares very well to a pair of shutdown defencemen from Stanley Cup contenders:
It will take some more time for Chicago’s rebuild to round into form, but between Kaiser, Alex Vlasic, and Kevin Korchinski, the blue line is starting to take shape nicely.
10 – Success-Hill Goaltending
Though he’s not among the elite by Goals Saved Above Expected, Vegas goalie Adin Hill has been solid again for the Golden Knights with a .901 save percentage and 14 wins in 21 starts. Vegas hasn’t been their usual defensive best, but Hill is once again over 7.0 Goals Saved Above Expected this season, his third in a row. He is 1 of 5 goalies to be above that mark in each of the last three seasons:
This kind of consistent play in net is hard for any team to find, and it’s probably why Hill was named to Canada’s Four Nations Cup roster. He is not an elite goalie, but he is consistently good. That counts for a lot.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays, everyone. We will be back next week on the usual day.
