10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - December 30
We are a day earlier than normal this week, but will be back to our normal schedule next week. This column is going to be something a bit different as we are going to look at calendar 2024 to see what has stood out, both good and bad, rather than just the 2024-25 season. For today, all data is from Natural Stat Trick, and it’s as of Sunday morning (December 29th).
1 – The Fox and the Hughes
Rangers defenceman Adam Fox and Canucks defenceman Quinn Hughes both played their first full NHL seasons in 2019-20, and have been compared to each other ever since. Both won a Norris Trophy before the age of 25 and both should be in the conversation for another at the end of the 2024-25 season.
It is funny that they have been so often compared to each other, because since January 1st, 2024, there are two top-four defencemen who’ve been at least two standard deviations above the league median by both team-relative goal share at 5-on-5, and team-relative expected goal share at 5-on-5. You can probably guess who they are:
Both are rocks for their teams, and maybe we should just appreciate how good they both are.
2 – The Borg
Staying with the Rangers, they’ve started to overhaul their blue line by shipping Jacob Trouba to Anaheim and bringing in Will Borgen from Seattle. The funny thing about that is there are two defencemen in the NHL who, in calendar 2024, were the inverse of Fox and Hughes: These two defencemen are at least two standard deviations below the median by both team relative goal share at 5-on-5 and team-relative expected goal share at 5-on-5. You can probably guess at least one of them:
Borgen has generally been a competent third-pair defenceman but has seen his play slide the last couple of seasons. It is a wonder how much – if any – help he’ll be for New York.
3 – Mikey Likes It
When Drew Doughty got hurt in Los Angeles’s preseason, it was fair to wonder how Mikey Anderson and the rest of the blue line would fare. Well, of 160 defencemen this season with at least 400 minutes at 5-on-5, Anderson has the eighth-lowest goals against rate. Going back to the start of the calendar year, Anderson has the second-lowest rate of goals against at 5-on-5, and the lowest of any defenceman in his ice-time range:
If the Kings want a deep playoff run, they will need to keep up this elite defence, but Anderson and Gavrikov have held the fort in Doughty’s absence, and Anderson has been great regardless of his defence partner. It is very encouraging for Kings.
4 – Pietrange-goals Against
Vegas defenceman Alex Pietrangelo was named to Team Canada’s Four Nations Cup roster. It is a wonder what his reputation is across the league because of the 186 defencemen with at least 700 minutes of 5-on-5 play in calendar 2024, he has the worst goals against rate of all defencemen (and a 13th percentile expected goals against rate):
What is worrisome is that the goals against rate when skating with former partner Alec Martinez (3.57 goals against/60 at 5-on-5) is about as bad as when Pietrangelo is with any other blue liner (3.51 goals against/60). He is a very good offensive defenceman, but he’s the guy that many people think Evan Bouchard is.
5 – Bo Knows Hockey
Back in November, this column covered Buffalo defenceman Bowen Byram and his tracking data over his career. Well, as for the results, he’s just outside the top-10 defencemen by points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (minimum 700 minutes):
During his Buffalo tenure, he is third among their defencemen in goal share relative to the team at 5-on-5. The issue is that he’s been *light years* better when skating with Rasmus Dahlin (65.4% goal share) than without him (46.2% goal share). That split was somewhat the same at post-trade at the end of the 2023-24 season as it has been so far in 2024-25. It is fair to wonder how much of Byram’s production is a function of playing with Dahlin, but he’s still been very productive across the last 12 months.
6 – Shake Your Mony Maker
The buzz is starting to grow a bit, but it’s amazing the turnaround that Columbus forward Sean Monahan has had over the last couple of seasons. He fought injuries for years but has finally been healthy for the last 15 months, and it’s shown in his play. In fact, when looking at top-6 forwards in calendar 2024 that are inside the 95th percentile of both team-relative goal share and team-relative expected goal share at 5-on-5, there are three names. One should be obvious, and the other two names are genuine all-world superstars:
The interesting part for Monahan is this is across three teams: A lottery team in Montreal, a Cup contender in Winnipeg, and a hopeful playoff team in Columbus. No matter where he’s been, Monahan has thrived, and he’s been possibly the best story in the NHL over the last calendar year.
7 – Jesper Is Bratt
Since January 1st, there are 335 forwards with at least 600 minutes played at 5-on-5. Of those forwards, just 10 have managed at least 2.2 primary points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, or goals and first assists. Seven of those 10 forwards are almost certainly future Hall of Famers, and possibly eight of them. The two that aren’t are Brandon Hagel, and the New Jersey Devils forward that has been perhaps their most consistent producer over the last few years:
It was very smart for New Jersey to lock up Jesper Bratt long-term, and at a very, very reasonable $7.875-million AAV through 2031. He is a tremendous offensive player who is also very good at killing penalties. Those players don’t come by very often and, who knows, maybe he’ll get his name called for the Hall of Fame in 15 years.
8 – Power W(y)attage
Dallas forward Wyatt Johnston had a tough start to the 2024-25 season with just seven points in his first 17 games. He has been righting the ship for a while now by posting 15 points in his last 17 games. Even with that tough start, if we go back to the start of this calendar year, Johnston falls below that 2.2 primary points/60 threshold at 5-on-5 outlined in the section on Bratt, but not by very much. In fact, he is 1 of 9 forwards with at least 1.0 goals and 1.0 primary assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and the rest of the list is largely filled with superstars:
Considering how many top Dallas stars (pun!) have struggled to various degrees this season, we should keep the faith in Johnston. He is on the ascent to being a bona fide high-end forward in this league.
9 – Dammit, Bobby
It is very notable that after surprising everyone with 15 goals in 56 games while playing a minimal role in 2023-24, Toronto forward Bobby McMann has kept it rolling in 2024-25 as his 10 goals in 29 games puts him on pace for a 25-goal season (though because of games missed, his personal pace is for 22 goals). He is doing that while once again playing a third-line role, and if we go back to January 1st, he is in the top-5 of regular forwards in the league by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5:
It is also very notable he is shooting 14.2% in that time while the wide majority of forwards in his goal range is over 15%. He can create excellent shot volume and good quality, which is a potent mix for a depth scorer, and the type of depth scoring Toronto will need in the postseason.
10 – Miles Wood Rise Up
Over the last 12 months, of those 335 forwards with at least 600 minutes at 5-on-5, there are 21 who have managed at least 1.0 individual expected goals per 60 minutes. Twelve of those 20 forwards have managed at least 0.91 goals per 60 minutes, or a top-line rate, and 20 of those 21 forwards have managed at least 0.61 goals per 60 minutes, or a mid-tier third-line rate. The only one that hasn’t is Miles Wood, who has shot 3.6% at 5-on-5 in that span. Of those 20 forwards with at least 1.0 ixG/60 minutes in the last calendar year, the next-closest to Wood in terms of shooting percentage is Brady Tkachuk at 7.1%:
It is a complicated way of saying Wood has generated a lot of shots, and a lot of quality shots, but hasn’t had the finish. He has been injured a lot for Colorado this season, and typically isn’t a high-percentage shooter, but could be the type of depth scorer the team has lacked in recent playoff runs.
Until next week, and Happy New Year’s, everyone.
