10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week (December 3)
We are back for another ’10 Stats’ column looking at trends around the league, individual players, lines, pairings, or goalies. All data is as of the afternoon of December 2nd, and that data is from Natural Stat Trick with goalie data from Evolving Hockey. Tracking data is from AllThreeZones and viz is from HockeyViz.
1 – Danger Zone
NHL teams have radically changed their approach to creating offence and that is no more apparent than when looking at high-danger assists (HDA). AllThreeZones classifies those passes as seam (or cross-slot) passes or from behind the net. While forwards are at a three-year high in HDA per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, it’s interesting that defensemen are not only at a three-year high, but also about 25% higher than where they were two seasons ago:
What is interesting about that is goal scoring at 5-on-5 is down, on a league-wide level, from this time last year: On December 2nd, 2023 (a total of 736 team games), the league average was 2.55 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. As of December 2nd, 2024 (a total of 782 team games), the league average is 2.46 goals/60. The question, then, is whether involvement from defencemen is hurting the scoring, or keeping it from dropping even further.
2 – Saint Peter-ka
Tracking from AllThreeZones has forwards averaging 1.11 HD Assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. There are 207 forwards with at least 60 tracked minutes this season, and Buffalo’s JJ Peterka is near the top of the league by this mark:
This mirrors what Peterka did in his rookie season before focusing more on shooting last year. He seems to have found a good balance between the two as he’s pacing for 26 goals and 34 assists. There is upside beyond that, but he’s turning into a very well-rounded offensive force.
3 – The Flying Travises
Philadelphia’s Travis Konecny is pacing for 43 goals and 56 assists, which would be easily his best season (notice his name near the top of the HD Pass list in the section on Peterka). Defenceman Travis Sanheim is pacing for 49 points, which would also be a career year. Sanheim is currently in the 92nd percentile of HD passes/60 minutes at 5-on-5 among defencemen with 80 minutes tracked, and in (mostly) good company:
The Flyers are struggling at 5-on-5, but Sanheim has been impactful offensively and that matters for a team with a lot of question marks on defence.
4 – Table-Schetter
Brayden Schenn is currently sitting with 1.26 primary assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That is in the 95th percentile of the league and ahead of names like Jesper Bratt and J.T. Miller. It is curious that he’s ahead of Miller (and let’s hope Miller returns fully healthy from his current absence) given that they have very similar rates of high-danger assists, and scoring chance assists, this season:
Schenn is shooting 7.4%, which would be his first full season under 10% in his career. If (when) that improves, he could be a lot more productive over the next four months.
5 – The Wright Way
In this column a month ago, Shane Wright’s positive impacts for Seattle were discussed. Since then, the team is break-even by 5-on-5 goals with him on the ice (4-4) and minus-3 with him off the ice (19-22). Quietly, he has formed a very good third-line pair with Oliver Bjorkstrand:
Wright still has very good zone entry and scoring chance assist numbers, too. There will be bumps in the road, but the fourth overall pick from 2022 is starting to make his mark in the NHL.
6 – Folig-No Goals Allowed
Minnesota is once again one of the top defensive teams in the league, at least at 5-on-5. While a healthy Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon is a big part of that, the forward group is doing their part, too. It sticks out that Minnesota has been exceptional defensively with Marcus Foligno on the ice at 5-on-5, even in his minutes without Brodin on the blue line:
Foligno has been on the ice for just five goals against at 5-on-5 in his 278 minutes, and the expected goals against numbers back that up. He is once again one of the top defensive forwards in the league, and a reason why Minnesota is comfortably on their way to a playoff appearance (and maybe a division title).
7 – Saint John
Teams don’t have a massive year-over-year improvement without a combination of things all improving together. That is the case for Washington, but we do need to highlight how good defenceman John Carlson has been.
In 2023-24, the Capitals had a 49% expected goal share at 5-on-5 with Carlson on the ice, and they were outscored 67-55. So far in 2024-25, the Capitals have a 53.1% expected goal share at 5-on-5 with Carlson on the ice and are outscoring the opposition 25-16. That includes outscoring the opposition 14-11 in his time without the excellent Connor McMichael line. Additionally, the team is still above average offensively when Carlson is on the ice without that line:
The McMichael line has been a real difference-maker, but Carlson is definitely doing his part on the back end, with or without that line in front of him.
8 – Gudas? More Like, Badas.
Anaheim’s Radko Gudas was seemingly underappreciated for years as he was a genuinely excellent all-around defencemen with great defensive impact. That has not been the case in 2024-25 as the team has been worse defensively with him on the ice at 5-on-5 (3.03 expected goals against/60) than off the ice (3.01). What is worse is that his most common defence partner – Pavel Mintyukov – has been about the same defensively without Gudas, and much better offensively:
Gudas is 34 years old and only has one year left on his contract, so this isn’t a big deal for the team because he’s a stop-gap for them as their young defence group matures. It is fair to wonder if his time as a high-end defender has come to an end, though.
9 – The Season of the Wolf
It has been a few years coming after toiling so long in the AHL, but Calgary goalie Dustin Wolf has been a big part of why the Flames find themselves in a playoff spot 25 games into the season. Through his 13 appearances, he sits in the top quarter of the NHL’s regular goalies by goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60), and not far behind names like Jake Oettinger and Joey Daccord:
He will need to keep this up if Calgary wants to hold onto their playoff spot, but this has been one of the most acclaimed prospect goalies for a few years now, and it seems he’s starting to find his footing in the NHL.
10 – S(H)wayman
Conversely, it has not been a good start to Jeremy Swayman’s season as he sits near the bottom of the league by total goals saved above expected – we’re talking Cayden Primeau/Alex Nedeljkovic territory. However, over half of Swayman’s negative GSAx total has come while shorthanded. Boston has given their opponents the second-most power plays per game, which doesn’t help. Even worse is that Swayman is facing 47.7 shots per 60 minutes while short-handed. For comparison, that mark his backup Joonas Korpisalo is facing just 30.6 shots against per 60 minutes of short-handed play. Swayman’s shots against isn’t high when compared to other goalies across the league, but it’s significantly worse than his teammate’s, so Boston should look into why they’re giving up so much with Swayman in net rather than Korpisalo.
Until next week.
