10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - January 13
We are back with another ’10 Stats’ column and this week we look at the first half of the season, declines and improvements across the first half, and some impact depth options. As always, data is from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, with player tracking data from AllThreeZones. The viz is from HockeyViz.
1 – Quarterly Report
Every team has now played at least 40 games and most have played at least 42. That means we are into the third quarter of the NHL season, so it’s worth looking at which teams have seen improvements throughout the season. We are going to use November 26th as the cutoff for the first quarter and look at shots, goals, and expected goals.
In the second quarter, there were five teams that added at least 3% to each of their all-strengths shot, goal, and expected goal share. A couple of them are obvious, but there are a couple surprises, too:
The surprise to me was Florida because they are 3-4-1 in their last eight games, but they were on a tear before that. It is notable that three of those teams are part of the group chasing a Wild Card playoff spot in the East.
2 – Powered Up
Detroit hired a new coach on Boxing Day and since then the team is 7-1, which is the best record in the league in that span. How are they doing it? There are a few reasons, but here’s a big one.
Up until Christmas, the league average for percentage of power play goals as a share of all goals scored by a team was 19.9%, and New Jersey led the league at 27.4%. Since Christmas, teams have gotten 20.2% of their goals from the power play, and guess who leads the league:
Detroit has 14 power play goals in those eight games, which is an absolutely absurd number. There are improvements elsewhere, but getting 1.75 power play goals per game goes a long way to stringing wins together.
3 – Living Dangerously
We have spent some time this season discussing high-danger passing at 5-on-5, which are passes across the slot or from behind the net. While we have looked at players, or groups of players, we haven’t looked at the entire league. It is worth pointing out that at 5-on-5, the top-10 scoring teams on a 60-minute basis do generate more high-danger passes than the bottom-10 teams, and it’s nearly a 14% difference:
There is a lot more to scoring goals than high-danger passing, but it seems pretty clear that it is something that helps players put the puck in the net. It is notable that the two teams with the lowest 5-on-5 goal scoring rate are Nashville and Calgary, and they have two of the three lowest rates of high-danger passes.
4 – Jackson Three
Carolina’s Jackson Blake is having a very good rookie season, even if he won’t get the coverage of budding stars like Macklin Celebrini or Lane Hutson. When looking for comparable players by team-relative shot attempt, expected goal, and goal shares at 5-on-5, as well as primary points per 60 minutes, two names came up:
Keep in mind this is a 21-year-old rookie playing on the fourth line. To be doing what he does is a very good sign for the team’s future, and he might be in for a bigger second half if he can move up the lineup as he did over the weekend.
5 – Goner Mc-Syke-ael?
The day after American Thanksgiving, Washington’s Connor McMichael led all NHL forwards by individual expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (1.44) and was about 10% higher than second place. He was doing an excellent job of getting to the net, and he was scoring a lot of goals because of it.
That hasn’t been the case lately. Since Black Friday, McMichael has one of the largest drops of individual expected goals rate in the league, only exceeded by a teammate:
McMichael started the season with 13 goals in his first 20 games while averaging 2.8 shots per game and now has four goals in his last 20 games while averaging 1.7 shots per game. He is not getting to the net, and he is shooting a lot less. That is a bad combination.
6 – Wild(ly Good) Bill
On a team with Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, it’ll be hard for anyone else to stand out, but William Karlsson is doing just that. His production has declined from 2023-24, but his impact on the team has not as he leads Vegas by both team-relative shot attempt and expected goal share. By HockeyViz’s Synthetic Goals measure (which encompasses offensive/defensive impact as well as penalties taken/drawn and more), he’s having the best season he’s ever had:
A reminder that he has rarely gotten top power-play time and neither of Eichel nor Stone are among Karlsson’s six most-common forward line mates at 5-on-5. He has held the middle-6 together for Vegas and is having a very underrated season.
7 – Domo Arigato, Matt Coronato
Calgary is hanging around a playoff spot and there are several reasons for that, but we should highlight the improvement of winger Matt Coronato. He has 12 points in his last 15 games and has had first-line rates of shot attempts and individual expected goals per 60 minutes. In fact, when comparing the shot attempts, expected goals, and points per 60 minutes with other forwards since December 4th (15 games for Calgary), there are some very good names that compare to Coronato’s output:
It is a small sample, and we can’t ignore the lower production early on, but he has been a lot better, and we do love to see a young player on an upswing like this.
8 – Lil’ Engine That Could
Timothy Liljegren was traded from Toronto to San Jose on Halloween. Since then, relative to his Sharks teammates, Liljegren has positive shot attempt, goal, and expected goal shares at 5-on-5. When looking for a comparable performance across the league, a really interesting name appeared:
This is interesting because Egor Zamula has fallen out of favour in Philadelphia, but he is a player I was (and still am) modestly high on. Liljegren has been fine, but it might be time for the Flyers to give Zamula another look because things really weren’t that bad for him, even with some defensive lapses.
9 – Ducks Grow Together
With injuries and players missing time, the Ducks have been shifting their lineup a bit recently. However, rookie Cutter Gauthier and 21-year-old Mason McTavish have been playing together a lot of late, and the team is scoring 2.92 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with them on the ice, which is 42% higher than the team average. The key is they’ve also been good by expected goals for per 60 minutes, coming in well above the league average:
The defensive play is poor, but that is that case for basically the entire team. The fact that their two young players are showing this kind of offensive upside is very exciting, and something to keep an eye on in the second half.
10 – When I Say, ‘Hello Mr. Thompson’, You’ll Say, ‘Hi’
Logan Thompson has been excellent in net for Washington this year, but even some of his flattering stats belie how good he’s been. At even strength, there are 26 goalies who have faced at least 400 shots. By shots faced per Goals Saved Above Expected, there are two who’ve separated themselves from the pack. One is the consensus Vezina Trophy winner so far, and the other is obvious:
Depending on the severity of Charlie Lindgren’s injury, Thompson may get a lot of starts coming up. We will see how he handles that workload, but if it’s anything like he’s done so far, Washington is in very good hands.
Until next week.
