10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - July 8
Welcome back for another week of ’10 Interesting Stats’ and this week we’re looking at free agency. We are a week into the free agent period and while there weren’t too many key names this year, there are some intriguing lower-in-the-lineup options that moved so let’s see what they bring to their new teams. Let’s look at those skaters with player data from Evolving Hockey, tracking data from AllThreeZones, and contract information from PuckPedia.
1 – Killa Kali
Winger Arthur Kaliyev signed a one-year deal with the Ottawa Senators, which gives them depth but also means Kaliyev has a lot of competition for a lineup spot. Kaliyev can do one thing that Ottawa really didn’t have much of in 2024-25 and that’s give them some forechecking. Here is how much 5-on-5 offence Senators forwards created off the rush in 2024-25 compared to that season’s league average, and how much Kaliyev has created in his four seasons compared to the league average:
Kaliyev has fought injuries in his young career and now gets a fresh start. Plenty of players had health issues early in their careers before finding success like Jordan Kyrou, Marco Rossi, Valeri Nichushkin, and Taylor Hall. Kaliyev is hoping to follow in their footsteps and has the talent to do it.
2 – Let Them Eat Bread
Andrew Mangiapane is back in Alberta, only with Edmonton now instead of Calgary. At this point, it’s easy to forget that Mangiapane had a two-year span from 2021-2023 where he scored at a 90th percentile rate at 5-on-5. The production has declined heavily since, and it seems as if his goal scoring has declined in lockstep with how many shots he gets off high-danger passes:
Mangiapane’s shot rate has declined, which explains a good chunk of this. However, he’s now going to play with either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, two players who are elite at creating high-danger shots for teammates. Do not be surprised at a huge rebound season from Mangiapane, though the lack of a top power-play role in Edmonton will keep him from reaching 30 goals again.
3 – Desperately Needed
The New York Rangers need to improve their team defence and Taylor Raddysh, fresh off a two-year deal with New York, is a guy who can help. Over the last four seasons, Raddysh has a top-line goals against impact at even strength, and a second-line expected goals against impact. Here is the list of comparable forwards:
Raddysh doesn’t bring much offensively, but he can drive the play and is responsible in his own end. That is the type of player the Rangers have been sorely lacking in their forward mix and that should help them not lose their minutes with their top stars off the ice.
4 – Want To Touch the Hein-y
Though he was acquired in the Noah Dobson trade, Emil Heineman had to sign with the New York Islanders, which he did on a two-year deal. He just completed his first full NHL season, and it was a successful one. Heineman is a hard-nosed player but not one-dimensional, as evidenced by this list of comparable forwards in 2024-25 by shots per expected goal (lower = better), rate of hits, and expected goals against impact:
A season with 66 games doesn’t make a career, but Heineman is still just 23 years old and showed a lot of forechecking traits coveted by teams these days. If he can repeat or improve on this performance, there has never been a more New York Islanders Third-Line Forward than this guy.
5 – Hatin’ on Mason
Unfortunately, we do have to offer one negative, and it’s Mason Appleton signing for two years in Detroit. He has spent the last three seasons in Winnipeg and according to Natural Stat Trick, the defensive difference in Mason Appleton’s minutes alongside centre Adam Lowry isn’t even in the same universe, let alone ballpark, as Appleton’s minutes with any other centre:
Maybe something changes for Appleton because he did have good defensive impacts early in his career. He also has some offensive juice to his game, so this isn’t a dead-weight contract immediately. Expectations should be tempered, though, as this is not a high-end defensive winger who can single-handedly change the fortunes of a second or third line.
6 – Cui Gives a Shit?
Anthony Mantha is coming off a tough year where he missed most of the season with a torn knee ligament, which is probably why he only got a one-year from Pittsburgh. When he’s been healthy, though, he’s been an incredibly productive player at 5-on-5. Here are the comparable forwards to Mantha over the last four years with at least 165 games played by:
· Goals per 60 minutes
· Primary Assists per 60 minutes
· Shots per Expected Goal
The knock on Mantha has always been that he’s a 6’5, 230 lbs. winger who plays like a 5’10, 180 lbs. winger. But if he can be productive and drive positive goal differentials – which he does – then Mantha reminds me of this exchange from The Departed:
(Scorsese, M., 2006, 42:38 - 42:43)
Who gives a shit, indeed.
7 – They Can’t Keep Getting Away With This
After failing to become a regular in Calgary, and Philadelphia moving on from him quickly, Jakob Pelletier signed a three-year deal in Tampa Bay. He is on the small side, listed at 5’9, but he quietly had a solid season in 2024-25 despite just 49 games played. In fact, of the 24 regular forwards between Calgary and Philadelphia, just four had positive impacts across goals-for and expected goals-for categories, as well as goals against and expected goals against categories:
Like Heineman, this isn’t nearly a big enough sample to be confident in Pelletier’s long-term viability in the NHL, but having good process and results is better than having bad process and results (crazy, I know). This is a smart bet by Tampa Bay because if he builds off this season, that contract is a steal, and if he doesn’t, they just send him to the AHL.
8 – The Other Joseph Brother
Pierre-Olivier Joseph, brother to Mathieu Joseph, signed a one-year deal in Vancouver. The first-round pick from 2017 just has not been able to establish himself in the NHL and when looking at the tracking data, it’s obvious why that is. Over the last four seasons, here are comparable defencemen by rate of failed zone exits and rate at which they allow the opposition to carry the puck into the zone:
That is not a list of luminaries, and with Joseph on his third team in 12 months at 26 years old, this may be his last chance. Hopefully something works out, but he has to change that defensive profile or coaches just won’t trust him with a regular spot in the lineup.
9 – The Zac Attack
The New York Rangers let Zac Jones walk in restricted free agency and he signed a one-year deal in Buffalo. While that kind of feels like an ‘Out Of The Frying Pan, Into The Fryer’ situation, Jones deserves a chance to show what he can do. He has shown some playmaking skill from the blue line as these are the defencemen with comparable rates of assists on teammate scoring chances across the last four seasons at 5-on-5:
There is a lot more to being an regular NHL defenceman than being a good playmaker, but it’s something he has in his bag, and the defensive impacts have been at least passable. There may be something here, there may not, but there is enough skill here to warrant some optimism, and Buffalo needed to shake up their depth defencemen.
10 – My Muse, My Flame
Small defencemen are my personal weakness, which is why this column had so many mentions of Scott Perunovich this past season, and now one more mention after signing with Utah. Well, that and the fact that he led all St. Louis defencemen who played in each of the last two years (so, excluding Cam Fowler and Philip Broberg) by goal share and expected goal share relative to teammates. In fact, going back four seasons, here are the comparable defencemen by those teammate-relative measures:
Being a 5’10 puck-moving defenceman is a tough gig these days because you have to really stand out to earn a roster spot over a 6’3 defenceman who is at least competent at moving the puck. And Utah has a lot of roster competition with five left-handed defencemen signed to NHL contracts (not including Perunovich) and prospects Artyom Duda and Dmitri Simashev knocking on the door. All the same, I hope Perunovich gets a chance to show what he can do at the NHL level again because it feels as if he’s been undervalued.
Until next week.
