10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - July 22

An old internet hockey adage is ‘goalies are voodoo’ which serves to highlight how much things can change in net from year to year. There are a lot of teams who have turned the keys, or are turning the keys, over to younger goalies so let’s look at some of them and why there should be optimism for each netminder in 2025-26.

As always, player data is from Evolving Hockey with other sources credited as needed.

1 – Lukáš Dostál (Anaheim)

The trade of John Gibson and extension of Dostál solidifies the latter’s position as Anaheim’s top netminder. In 117 games played over the last three seasons, he has a save percentage over .900, which is a miracle given how bad Anaheim has been. In that span, he’s put up the same rate of Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) as two of the premier goalies in the league:

Dostál took a huge step forward in 2024-25 as the team around him did the same. Once the Ducks start stabilizing defensively, Dostál has the look of a goalie who will be able to dominate year after year.

2 – Dustin Wolf (Calgary)

As a rookie, Wolf managed 0.5 GSAx/60 in 53 games played. That is rarified air for a goalie as this is the entire list of goalies under the age of 24 with at least 50 appearances in a season and at least 0.5 GSAx/60:

Before things fell apart for Gibson and the Ducks 5-6 years ago, there was a five-year stretch from 2014-2019 where Gibson was far-and-away the top goalie in the league, no matter what the Vezina voting says in that stretch. It isn’t to say Wolf is on the same trajectory (remember that goalies = voodoo), but this is a very promising start.

3 – Yaroslav Askarov (San Jose)

There isn’t much of an NHL sample to use when it comes to Askarov, though he was solid in his brief Sharks tenure in 2024-25 (adjusted for how bad San Jose was). In this case, it’s worth highlighting how good Askarov has been in the AHL. Per Elite Prospects, there are three goalies since the 2012 lockout to manage 100 AHL games by the end of their age-22 season and post an aggregate save percentage over .910:

We just went over how good Wolf has been and Stolarz was one of the best backups in the league before a breakout 2024-25 campaign in Toronto. If Askarov can follow in their footsteps, the Sharks genuinely have their franchise goalie for the next decade.

4 – Spencer Knight (Chicago)

Very quietly, after splitting time between Florida and Chicago, Spencer Knight had a very good rebound season after spending so much time in the Player’s Assistance Program. Last year, 34 goalies faced at least 1500 shots. Those 34 goalies averaged 0.85 GSAx per 100 shots faced. Knight managed 1.12 GSAx per 100 shots faced, which was 31% better than average, and not far off Dallas’s franchise netminder:

If Chicago has one strength, it is their blue line, so Knight has a chance at being an impact goalie for the Blackhawks in 2025-26. It is hard to not root for a guy who has overcome what he has so early in his career, so it would be great to see him keep up this success.

5 – Pyotr Kochetkov (Carolina)

Kochetkov had some struggles and (largely) ceded the net to Frederik Andersen when Andersen was healthy, particularly in the postseason. That overshadows what was another solid regular season for Kochetov – over the last three years, there have been 173 instances of a goalie facing 600 shots in a single campaign. The average GSAx per 100 shots faced of those 173 goalies is 0.59. This is the list of all the goalies to be above that average in each of season:

In-season innconsistency has led to uncertainty around Kochetkov’s future but there’s little doubt he’s an NHL starter. The question is whether he’ll reach the top or second tier of goalies, or be closer to average.

6 – Jet Greaves (Columbus)

Greaves took over Columbus’s net late in the season as they were chasing a playoff spot. Though he has just 21 career NHL games, it’s hard to have a better start to a career. In fact, of all goalies to face under 1000 shots in their age-21 to age-23 seasons since 2007, Greaves has by far the highest GSAx per 100 shots faced:

He won’t stay anywhere near that level long-term, and it’s not a big sample to work with – Calvin Pickard was tremendous to start his career at this age and look at him now. But Greaves has had a lot of success in the AHL and will get a chance to be a regular NHL starter.

7 – Samuel Ersson (Philadelphia)

Ersson hasn’t been good in his NHL career, but this is more about his team than him. Over the last two seasons, 49.8% of Philadelphia’s 5-on-5 offence came off the rush, the highest percentage in the league. Conversely, Vancouver’s rush offence percentage was 39%, the third-lowest rate:

Over those two seasons, the top-8 teams by Rush% (Philadelphia included) averaged 2.52 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, while the bottom-8 teams (Vancouver included) averaged 2.24 goals against per 60 minutes. With former Vancouver coach Rick Tocchet now behind the bench, Ersson is in a much better position to succeed.

8 – Arturs Silovs (Pittsburgh)

A trade to Pittsburgh gives Silovs a route to being an NHL starter that he didn’t have in Vancouver, but it’s also a much worse team. Though his NHL career hasn’t had a good start in limited action, that is far from a death knell to his future. Going back to the 2013 lockout, here are the goalies – up to the age of 23 – who appeared in more than one season, played under 50 games, and had similar(ish) rates of GSAx per 100 shots faced:

In there we have two current top-10 starters in the league in Montembeault and Ullmark, and two NHL starters with uncertain futures in Soderblom and Luukkonen. The only outright bust was Mazanec. Though Silovs has had a rough start and won’t get any help from the Penguins skaters in front of him, there is no reason to give up on him just yet.

9 – Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Luukkonen was great in 2023-24 but had a big downturn in 2024-25. While he likely needs to be better individually, the real improvement needs to come from the blue line in front of him, and Owen Power in particular. Here are Luukkonen’s goals against rates at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons with Power on the ice and with Power off the ice:

To put those numbers into context, when Luukkonen is in net with Power on the ice, Buffalo gives up goals at a Chicago Blackhawks-like rate. When Luukkonen is in net without Power on the ice, Buffalo gives up goals at a New York Rangers-like rate. There is more to it than just heaping it all on Power, and Buffalo’s offseason blue line upgrades should help, but Power really needs to round out his defensive game.

10 – Samuel Montembeault

At the risk of sounding like a homer, there isn’t a more underrated goalie in the NHL than Montembeault. As some proof: Since 2007, there have been 44 goalies to accumulate at least 4000 shots faced between the ages of 25 and 28. The average GSAx/100 shots faced among those 44 goalies is 0.47. Four of those 44 goalies posted a GSAx/100 shots at least three times higher than that average, and this is that list:

That is three years and over 4300 shots faced, which is about as much as we need for a reliable sample of goalie talent. If Montembeault has one more season like any of his last three years, it will be undeniable. Goalies are voodoo, but this may be an exception that proves the rule.

Until next week.