10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - January 28
Welcome back to another week of 10 Interesting Stats. As always, player data is from Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey, player tracking is from AllThreeZones, and viz from HockeyViz and InStat.
1 – Colora-Don’t Score On The Power Play
Across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, when Colorado had Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar on the ice for 5-on-4 power plays, the team generated 63.1 shots and scored 10.5 goals per 60 minutes. It wasn’t Edmonton Oilers-esque, but it was in the second tier of high-end power plays like Tampa Bay and Toronto. Until the Rantanen trade, those numbers for Colorado were 48 shots and 8.0 goals per 60 minutes. Why the drop?
These things are always multi-factor, but the tracking data saw Rantanen’s passing change. As a percentage of his passes tracked, none came from the goal line to the slot, and his passes across the slot have been cut in half:
Rantanen has been traded, and the Avalanche went 1-for-4 on the power play over the weekend, so maybe something will change. But their power play has not been good this year, and it needs to be better as playoffs approach.
2 – Here Come The Oilers (complimentary)
On the morning of November 20th, with Edmonton having just played their 20th game, Edmonton’s top power-play unit was scoring a paltry 5.7 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4. In fact, compared to the prior two seasons, there were a lot of declines in power-play measures other than goals: Shots and expected goals per minute were down 37% and 16%, respectively. Zach Hyman got injured, came back a couple weeks later, and since his return, the top PP unit’s shots, expected goals, and goals rates have returned to levels similar to their elite power-play production from 2022-2024. What changed?
A lot of it is Zach Hyman. On the left is his shot map in those first 17 games of the season with the entire top PP unit on the ice (McDavid was injured for 3 of the 20 games). On the right is from his return on December 5th through January 18th when McDavid was suspended:
From 2022-2024, Hyman took nearly 77% of his 5-on-4 shot attempts from that pentagonal area directly in front of the net. In the first 17 games of this season, that was just 50%. Since December 5th, that is up to 81%. He is a player that lives in front of the net, and that threat has greatly helped him, and Edmonton’s entire power play, find elite success again.
3 – King Arthur
Arthur Kaliyev has now played nine games with the New York Rangers. It has been a good start with two goals and one assist, all at 5-on-5, while skating just 11:07 per game. Importantly, he has helped Filip Chytil turn his season around: Chytil returned from an injury on November 30th, and in Chytil’s 18 games between that return and them being put together on January 14th, the Rangers controlled just 43.2% of the expected goals at 5-on-5 with Chytil on the ice while being outscored 13-8. In their seven games together, they’ve outscored the opposition 5-3, and have positive expected goals impacts both offensively and defensively:
We obviously need a lot more than seven games together, but it’s an encouraging start for New York’s newest forward and his line mate.
4 – Apple Of My Eye
It is another tough season for the Anaheim Ducks, but there are lots of encouraging signs from their younger players, and especially Mason McTavish who had a pair of goals in a win over Nashville on Saturday night. When looking back to 2013 and players with similar rates of goals, primary assists, and individual expected goals at 5-on-5 before turning 22 years old, the list is short and distinguished:
Seeing Dylan Larkin’s name is interesting because, like McTavish, Larkin struggled defensively early in his career. Larkin got much better defensively in his mid-20s, so it’ll be fun to see if McTavish can follow the same trajectory. Regardless, a great offensive performance to start McTavish’s career, especially considering the team around him.
5 – Return of the Macc?
At 5-on-5 and across the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons, Utah forward (then-Arizona) Matias Maccelli averaged 4.65 assists on scoring chances and 1.5 high-danger passes per 60 minutes. That led to 1.54 assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over those two seasons, a 94th percentile mark, and identical to St. Louis Blues all-star Robert Thomas. Maccelli looked like the next great playmaker who could add 15-20 goals.
In 2024-25, those tracking passing numbers are 4.1 and 1.53, respectively, so a small drop in the former and a small rise in the latter. However, his line mates are not finishing at all so his pace is for 10 assists at 5-on-5 in 82 games this season – his pace over the prior two seasons was 27.5 assists at 5-on-5 every 82 games. He is starting to score well lately, but compared to his last two years, his line mates are not:
There is clearly some positive regression to come for Maccelli, but it’s a wonder if it’ll be over the next 2.5 months, or next season.
6 – Exit Rant
Carolina acquired Mikko Rantanen over the weekend, and when a team acquires a player like that, the general sentiment should be “he can help this team everywhere”. However, when looking at the differences between he and Martin Nečas, what sticks out the most is what they do in the defensive zone. Specifically, over the last two seasons at 5-on-5 when either is exiting the defensive zone, Rantanen exits successfully more often, more often with possession, and with fewer failures:
This isn’t a team-specific thing either as Colorado defencemen typically have more defensive zone touches and similar zone exit rates as Carolina defencemen. Rantanen is a big help in getting the offence moving the other way, and that’s good news for the Hurricanes.
7 – That’s Barz, Homie
New York Islanders forward Mathew Barzal has been beyond tremendous this season. When looking at forwards with 400 minutes played at 5-on-5, he leads the way by expected goal share relative to his team and is second by actual goal share relative to his team (only Kirill Marchenko in Columbus is higher). Importantly, he has been dominant at 5-on-5 even without Anders Lee next to him, the other standout Islanders forward from this season:
Barzal’s contract runs through his age-33 season. Considering the offensive quality of the team around him, his career is on a ‘What If?’ trajectory unlike few other players in recent memory. He is excellent but will never get the credit for it on that roster.
8 – All Bark, No Bite?
Aleksander Barkov is not having a very good season by his standards. Both his shots and goals per game are the lowest in a decade, and his points per game are a 5-year low. Compared to last year, his goal, shot attempt, and expected goal rates at 5-on-5 have all declined. It isn’t only him, either, as the team is scoring far less, and generating far fewer shots and expected goals when he’s on the ice at 5-on-5. Coincidentally, he has seen significant drops in how often he’s responsible for a Florida zone entry, and how often he’s carrying those pucks in:
Sam Reinhart is taking more zone entries, but he’s a guy that doesn’t usually carry the puck into the zone, so it’s a wonder if putting the puck on the wrong player’s stick isn’t hurting the offence of their top line.
9 – Bring It Back
While the Cam York-Travis Sanheim pairing has been split up recently in Philadelphia, it’s a wonder if they don’t reunite soon because this duo has been excellent for the Flyers at 5-on-5 this season:
There are goals against issues again, which has been the case two years in a row, but the question is how much of it is them and how much of it is goaltending that has largely not been very good. Regardless, this has been a pretty good defensive pair for the Flyers, and they might want to think about putting them back together as they try to chase down a playoff spot.
10 – No Good No Mo?
After a strong start early in the season, Toronto defencman Morgan Rielly has been struggling on offence. The team is scoring under 2.0 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over their last 25 games when he’s on the ice, and on the season as a whole, the team’s 2.2 goals/60 rate at 5-on-5 with Rielly on the ice is his lowest mark in nine years. What is curious is that under new coach Craig Berube, Rielly’s failure rate on zone exits is nearly identical to what he did the prior two seasons. However, how often Toronto exits the zone with possession when Rielly has the puck has plummeted:
As a group, Toronto’s defencemen are exiting the zone far less with possession under Berube (64.5%) than that prior two seasons (76.8%) but Rielly has been hit very hard specifically. Maybe there is a reason, beyond a few injuries, why Toronto’s 5-on-5 scoring rate is the lowest it has ever been since Auston Matthews entered the league.
Until next week.
