10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - February 11
Welcome back to another week of ’10 Interesting (To Me) Stats. This week, we have defencemen and their impact on goal scoring, John Tavares’s downward slide in Toronto, Connor Bedard’s historic production, and more. As always, data from Natural Stat Trick or Evolving Hockey, player tracking data from AllThreeZones, and viz from HockeyViz.
1 – Rush Hour
Ever look for one thing and it’s the opposite of what you expected? Digging through defencemen and offence they create off the rush at 5-on-5 (shots and assists on shots off the rush), the expectation was that it would lead to more goals against. That hasn’t necessarily been the case as while the correlation isn’t strong in 2024-25, there is a downward trend in that the more a team’s defence group creates off the rush, the lower the 60-minute goals-against rate is:
In fact, the two teams with the lowest rate of rush offence from defencemen are San Jose and Montreal, and they are the two teams with the highest goals against rate. That was also the case in 2023-24 where defencemen from San Jose and Chicago had the lowest rush offence rates in the league, but their teams also had the highest goals against rates. There is still a lot of variance from team to team, but defencemen joining the rush doesn’t necessarily adversely affect goals against as we might think it would.
2 – The New-Old Carolina Hurricanes
A little over a month into the season, we talked about how Carolina defencemen were taking a far lower share of the team’s shots than they had in recent seasons.
Things are reverting back, though. Since Game 21 of the season (November 24th onward), Carolina defencemen are taking over 43% of the team’s shot attempts, and the Hurricanes are 19th by goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Of the eight teams that lead by share of shot attempts from defencemen, only Edmonton is in the top-8 of the league by goals per 60 minutes:
Getting defencemen involved offensively is generally a good idea, but Brent Burns and Sean Walker taking more shot attempts than Andrei Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho doesn’t seem to be a great approach. Let’s see if things change with more games under Mikko Rantanen’s belt.
3 – Filipping The Script
It would have been understandable if Vancouver had struggled when Norris/MVP candidate Quinn Hughes was injured, especially with Detroit, Colorado, and Toronto being three of their next four games. But the Canucks went 3-0-1 in those four games and a big thanks goes to Filip Hronek with 1 goal and 3 assists. He was also not on the ice for a single goal against at 5-on-5 or on the penalty kill.
It is notable that after struggling at times without Hughes next to him over the prior two seasons, the Canucks have found a lot of success when Hronek is on the ice at 5-on-5 without their superstar defenceman:
This kind of play without Hughes would allow the Canucks to put together two good defence pairs, and that’s one more than they’ve had for most of the season.
4 – Geoff’s Son
Ottawa goes into the Four Nations break in a playoff spot in the East, going 19-11-3 since December 1st. It is hard not to notice defenceman Jake Sanderson of late, with 13 points in his last 15 games.
More than the offence, though, is Sanderson’s incredible defensive play. When looking across the league for defencemen with a similar rate of denial for opposing zone entries, and how often the opposition creates a scoring chance on entries they do allow, Sanderson compares very well to some top defensive blue liners:
Ottawa, as a team, is struggling to a significant degree to score goals at 5-on-5, but their defence has been stellar, and Sanderson is a big part of that. He is just 22 years old, and his NHL career to date looks nothing short of a future Norris Trophy-calibre rearguard. There is a reason he was named to Team USA’s Four Nations roster as Quinn Hughes’s replacement.
5 – No Faulking Offence
In 2023-24, St. Louis defenceman Justin Faulk was on the ice for just 2.3 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Considering that number was 3.4 goals/60 across the prior two seasons, it seemed a blip and that he’d turn things around.
In a way, it was a blip, just not how we wanted because things are even worse in 2024-25 as Faulk has been on the ice for just 1.3 goals/60 minutes. Relative to their respective teams, only one defenceman has been worse:
This makes a few seasons in a row of decline for Faulk. Including playoffs (barring injury), he’ll crest 1000 games played this season and turns 33 years old in March. It is fair to ask if a guy who was a reliable top-4 defenceman for the better part of a decade has reached the end of his road.
6 – Samsonite? I Was Way Off
Florida rookie Mackie Samoskevich was injured recently but it looks as if he’ll be good to go once the schedule resumes in a couple weeks. It is a good thing, too, because he’s having a great rookie season.
By expected goals impact, Samoskevich has a positive impact (per Evolving Hockey). Despite shooting just 6.5% with him on the ice, Florida has a positive 5-on-5 goal differential (18-17) in his minutes. When looking for comparable forwards by individual shot attempts, shots, expected goals, and goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, two names came up:
As a rookie in the AHL in 2023-24, Samoskevich has 16% more points per game than any of his teammates (minimum 40 games played) and finished tied for 5th in rookie goal scoring. He has now been excellent to start his NHL career. The Panthers may have found a gem towards the end of the first round of the 2021 Draft.
7 – JT Not-Very-Money
On the morning of December 21st, the Toronto Maple Leafs were 4th in the league by points percentage (21-10-2) and were 4th by goal share at 5-on-5. Since that day, they have a .545 points percentage (middle of the league) and an even goal share at 5-on-5. It is curious that that downswing mirrors the downswing from John Tavares, who has seen his cumulative expected goal total take a dive since December 21st:
The recent games might be explained by his return from an injury, but it doesn’t explain what happened the 12 games prior. Tavares and his wingers being able to create a significant advantage on the second line is key to Toronto’s success, and that has not been the case for over a month and a half. Perhaps a couple weeks off to rest will do him some good.
8 – Leave Connor Alone
There was a lot of hubbub last week around Connor Bedard and some comments made by media personalities. It is funny, because he’s a 19-year-old playing on a Draft Lottery team for the second year in a row. It is also funny because here is the entire list of players over the last 30 years to manage at least 30 goals and 60 assists in the NHL before their 20th birthday:
He needs two goals and eight assists the rest of the way to be the only player in the last 30 years, other than Sidney Crosby, to put up 40 goals and 80 assists before turning 20 years old. Again, this is all being done on an absolutely awful team for the second year in a row. In my most respectful voice possible: What are you guys talking about?
9 – The Say Hayton Kid
Barrett Hayton was injured for much of the 2023-24 season, playing just 33 games in his worst campaign of his career. The 2024-25 season has been a huge rebound effort as his points/60 minutes at 5-on-5 is the highest of his career, and Evolving Hockey has his expected goal, and actual goal, differentials at even strength comparing to some elite forwards around the league:
On the whole, Hayton has been on an upward trend since reaching the NHL and looks to be, at worst, a good second-line centre. If he can ever learn to turn his possession advantages into more goals-for (or fewer goals against), there is a lot of upside built into his profile.
10 – By The Way
After a slow production start, Los Angeles forward Quinton Byfield has come alive over the last couple of months, posting 18 points in his last 24 games. He has turned into a key piece for their offensive group, too: Here are the two comparable forwards this year to Byfield in terms of being responsible for more zone entries than their respective team’s average while being at least 10% higher than their respective team’s average by percentage of zone entries carried in:
It is another year where Byfield has very good defensive impacts and his offence is coming around. He is still just 22 years old and looks to be putting it all together. Once he starts shooting the puck a bit more, he could be a dominant player at both ends of the ice.
Until next week.
