10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - March 3
Welcome back for another week of ’10 Interesting (To Me) Stats’! The NHL Trade Deadline is Friday, and teams will be loading up either for a playoff run or, if they’re fortunate, a Stanley Cup run. With that in mind, let’s review 10 Cup contenders and one weakness from each team that they should try to improve at the Deadline.
Tracking data is from All Three Zones and other player/team data is from Evolving Hockey. All data is current as of Monday, March 2nd. To get an idea of who is available, we are using The Athletic’s Trade Bait board.
1 – Tampa Bay Lightning
It starts with Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, but with the breakout seasons from J.J. Moser and Darren Raddysh, Tampa’s blue line is largely set. They have a very good checking line featuring Yanni Gourde, and they have five high-end forwards on their top two lines. It does leave them one top-6 winger short of two full lines. Enter Ilya Mikheyev from Chicago who, over the last 2+ seasons, has scored at a second-line rate at 5-on-5 and been a very good penalty killer:
Those are the comparable names by goals/60 at 5-on-5 and Evolving Hockey’s RAPM measurement on expected goals against on the PK (adjusts for things like teammates and competition). Maybe Mikheyev won’t quite fit in, which is what happened to Oliver Bjorkstrand last year, but at worst, Tampa Bay would improve their scoring depth and add another very good penalty killer.
2 – Carolina Hurricanes
With Jordan Staal finally hitting some serious age-related decline and Logan Stankoven showing well but not quite at the ‘second-line centre on a Cup contender’ level yet, Carolina needs a genuine top-6 centre to pair with Sebastian Aho. Nashville’s recent surge has put them on the fringes of a playoff spot, but if they are inclined to move Ryan O’Reilly, he’s been an excellent playmaker driving very good goal differentials this season:
Those are the comparable names by rate of assists on scoring chances at 5-on-5, and Evolving Hockey’s RAPM even-strength goal differential/60: we see Mark Stone, Will Smith, Mitch Marner, Dylan Larkin, and Matt Boldy. Add all that to O’Reilly being over 55% on faceoffs this year, and he checks a lot of boxes that Carolina is looking for.
3 – Pittsburgh Penguins
If we’re being honest, the Penguins do not have a lot of holes in the lineup – they are a 8th team by goal share at 5-on-5, 2nd by goals against at 4-on-5, and 5th goals for at 5-on-4. Acquiring defenceman Sam Girard has helped shore up one weakness (Kris Letang’s declining play), but if they want to bolster the defence group even more, looking across the state at Rasmus Ristolainen is an option:
That graph is from HockeyViz, and shows Ristolainen’s improving impacts both offensively and defensively over the last few years. Making a deal with a fierce state rival might not be in the cards, and Ristolainen’s had a tough 2025-26 season filled with injuries, but if he can play as he did the previous recent seasons, he’s an adequate cover for Letang’s drop-off.
4 – Detroit Red Wings
We are now at the level in the East where teams have multiple holes on the roster. Detroit might want to add some depth on defence, but it’s clear after rotating several options that they need a top-6 left winger to play with Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. In Calgary, Blake Coleman is having a quietly excellent season as here are the two comparable wingers by RAPM EV goal differential/60, RAPM xGF differential/60, and individual 5-on-5 goals/60:
This level of goal/expected goal driving is nothing new for Coleman, and while the goal rate is a bit high, it’s not extreme, and not far off what he did a couple years ago. He can also kill penalties, so he’s a well-rounded option to boost Detroit’s top line and give them a complete top-6 forward group. He could even give them a much-needed lift on the third line if they find an internal option that can stick with Larkin/Raymond.
5 – Montreal Canadiens
Note: This was written yesterday afternoon hours before Connor Murphy was traded to Edmonton. Take this as an idea of what the Oilers are getting, I guess?
Lane Hutson and Noah Dobson have turned the top of Montreal’s defence group from a liability to a strength, but the bottom of the defence group is still bleeding goal differential, and that’s a problem when facing deep playoff teams like Tampa Bay or Carolina. Finding a right-handed defenceman who can drive expected goal and goal differentials would be a good idea, and that’s where Chicago Blackhawks blue liner Connor Murphy comes into play:
Those are the comparable defencemen by the RAPM goal differential and expected goal differential measures over the last three seasons, and who skate at least second-pair minutes at even strength. It isn’t a who’s-who list of stars, but they mostly are good defensive defencemen who can drive positive goal differentials. That would be a welcome change to Montreal’s bottom defence pair.
6 – Colorado Avalanche
The one glaring weakness in Colorado is the power play, which has been among the worst in the NHL all season. A big, big problem is they generate almost nothing from the slot/net-front area. Luckily, there’s a winger in Columbus who has been one of the most efficient power play options in the league over the last few years, largely because of his net-front role:
That is a list of comparable forwards by shot attempt per expected goal and shot attempt per goal on the power play since 2023-24, which includes Ryan O’Reilly, Mark Stone, Chris Kreider, Gabriel Vilardi, and Valeri Nichushkin. Voronkov has fallen out of favour under the new Columbus coaching regime, and his specific skill set is the one thing that Colorado’s offensive attack is missing.
7 – Dallas Stars
With the news that Tyler Seguin’s season is over, the Stars are one winger short of an entire complement of top-6 forwards (including Mavrik Bourque). Apparently, the Los Angeles Kings may be willing to move winger Warren Foegele, and Dallas should be interested because here are the comparable forwards to Foegele over the last three seasons by RAPM EV goal differential, EV expected goal differential, and EVTOI per game:
The names are Shane Pinto, Jesper Bratt, Luke Evangelista, Quinton Byfield, and Matthew Tkachuk. Foegele is having a tough year in Los Angeles, but the same could be said of nearly the entire roster, and he has a long history of driving the play and goal differential well.
8 – Minnesota Wild
The addition of Quinn Hughes solves a lot of problems, but there’s still one more problem to solve, and that’s Minnesota’s penalty kill. At 4-on-5, the Wild rank 27th by goals against per 60 minutes this season, and they’re 23rd since Hughes’ first game. While the Columbus Blue Jackets will be hesitant to trade Boone Jenner, his effectiveness both at even strength and on the PK would make him appealing:
That is the list of forwards with similar EV goal differential and SH goals against rates over the last three seasons. It isn’t a list of elite forwards, but there are a lot of good middle-6 players there, and Jenner could really help improve Minnesota’s penalty kill.
9 – Vegas Golden Knights
This all depends on the health of William Karlsson, as it’s uncertain he returns before the end of the regular season. If he’s healthy, Vegas has a deep centre group. Without him, they need a third-line centre. If there’s a guy on the trade block that won’t be costly in a trade, can drive a third line, and even kill penalties, it’s Chicago’s Jason Dickinson:
That is a list of comparable forwards over the last three seasons by EV goal differential/60 and SH expected goals against/60. It includes Seth Jarvis, Adam Lowry, Pavel Buchnevich, and Pius Suter. If Dickinson is healthy, he’s a suitable, cost-effective replacement until Karlsson is ready to go.
10 – Edmonton Oilers
It feels like Edmonton has been searching for a third-line centre for a decade, and there are names we’ve already mentioned like O’Reilly, Dickinson, and Jenner. The latter two names are more likely than O’Reilly, and also more likely than Robert Thomas. However, if Thomas is available, his even-strength play over the last three seasons has been high-end:
We see Nikita Kucherov, Nick Suzuki, David Pastrnak, and Kirill Kaprizov, among others. Thomas would even give the Oilers a second-line centre whenever they move Leon Draisaitl to the top line. Edmonton almost certainly doesn’t have the trade chips to make it work, but it’d be a great idea for them if they could.
Until next week.
