10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - May 27
Welcome back for another week of ’10 Interesting Stats’. Carolina won Game 4 in Florida, so that series is going at least one more game. Thanks to that win, we should take some time to review the two Conference Finals series to this point, how each team got to where they are in the series, and what these matchups can tell us about how each series might end up.
As always, player data is from Natural Stat Trick unless otherwise indicated.
1 – The Killers (Edmonton)
In the preview of the Conference Finals, Edmonton’s penalty killing issues were raised. Those issues came to the forefront in Game 1 of the West Final as Edmonton carried a 3-1 lead into the third period before Dallas peeled off three PP goals in the first six minutes of the third period to take the lead, eventually winning the game 6-3.
Those issues disappeared in Games 2 and 3 as Edmonton killed all four of Dallas’ power plays. It is notable that despite those three goals against, the Edmonton PK has limited shots and quality at a much better rate than in the first two rounds:
Even with the letdown in Game 1, if the Oilers can keep up this level of penalty killing ability, it is a great sign for their chances of advancing to the Stanley Cup Final once again.
2 – Number 2 is Number 1 (Edmonton)
With five points in the first three games, Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard has as many points as both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The team also has a 56.8% expected goal share with him on the ice at 5-on-5, which leads Edmonton’s blue line. The key is that the defensive results have been spectacular with him on the ice compared to when he’s off the ice by rate of shot attempts against (CA/60), shots against, expected goals against, and actual goals against:
The point production will get headlines, but the defensive performance from Bouchard is something that has greatly helped Edmonton to get the 2-1 series lead.
3 – STUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU (Edmonton)
A lot has been made about Skinner’s mercurial performance in the postseason – either elite or terrible – but that oversimplifies things. He got shelled in their first two playoff games against Los Angeles and then Calvin Pickard took the net. Since Skinner was reinserted into the lineup for Game 3 of the second round, he has the second-highest Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes at even strength, per Evolving Hockey:
At even strength, his only bad game since getting his net back was Game 3 against Vegas. Since then, he has been anywhere from average to great. With Edmonton’s penalty kill improving, if Skinner can keep doing this at even strength, it takes away the one big weakness Edmonton has.
4 – Top Pair, Out (Dallas)
In the Conference Finals preview, the elite Dallas defence pair of Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen was mentioned as a strength of the Stars. They were broken up in Game 2 of the Conference Finals and, overall, it has not been a great series from Heiskanen, specifically, whether he’s been skating with or without Harley at 5-on-5:
Overall, Dallas has been outscored 4-1 with Heiskanen on the ice. He is being tasked with shutting down Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman, and the Oilers top duo is crushing him in that matchup with a 75% expected goal share and 71% shot attempt share. Dallas cannot afford to be getting throttled by the McDavid line if they want a good shot at advancing to the Cup Final.
5 – Third Pair, Best Pair? (Dallas)
Dallas’ third defence pair of Lian Bichsel and Alex Petrovic has been discussed at length in the postseason ’10 Stats’ columns, so it’s worth highlighting their success against Edmonton. Bichsel, specifically, is having a great series as he’s their only defenceman to play in all three games and not have a negative goal differential at 5-on-5. In fact, it isn’t just goals for/against where the numbers stand out, it’s in things like shot attempt share, shot share, and expected goals against share as well:
Whether Dallas can come back to win the series won’t rest on Bichsel’s shoulders, but that they’re finding success in his minutes is one less concern for the coaching staff. He is rarely on the ice against McDavid or Leon Draisaitl, which is a big part of this, but he’s doing his part to help the team stay in games. The same can’t be said for the other defence pairs.
6 – Very Low Danger (Carolina)
Through four games, Carolina has just two (2) goals at 5-on-5. While we can chalk that up partly to Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky playing well, the fact is that Carolina just isn’t generating much for dangerous shots. In the first two rounds, the Hurricanes required about 24.3 shot attempts for every expected goal generated at 5-on-5, just slightly higher than the average of the other 15 playoff teams (23.6). In the third round, that number has ballooned to 27.2 attempts per expected goal, much higher than the other three Conference Final teams:
Credit has to go to the Florida defence here, but Carolina must find a way to create tougher shots for Bobrovsky to save or else they might not get more than that one win.
7 – Very High Danger (Carolina)
At the outset of the second round, this column discussed how Carolina was great at limiting shots against at 5-on-5, but that they led the league (in a bad way) in percentage of shots allowed being high-danger shots. That has been a big problem again for Carolina in the third round before they had their best defensive game in Game 4. Here is the percentage of 5-on-5 shots against being high-danger shots from Games 1-3 and what they did in Game 4:
The shutout win reflects the defensive effort, and it was their best game at limiting high-danger shots against at 5-on-5. They will need more defensive efforts like that, along with creating more dangerous shots as we outlined earlier, if they want to push the series to seven games.
8 – Reach for the Top (Florida)
The Conference Final preview linked earlier discussed how Florida’s top defence pair of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad was struggling defensively through the first two rounds. They would need to improve to shut down Sebastian Aho, and the results have been a mixed bag thus far. The pair is breaking even by goals-for/against when matching against Aho at 5-on-5, which is what matters most, but the reality is they aren’t carrying the play and are allowing a lot of quality against in that matchup:
With Florida having a 3-1 series lead, this may not matter a lot, but these are numbers that can lose games. It would behoove Florida to close this out in Game 5 before Aho’s line starts turning all those chances into goals.
9 – Tkachuk, Line 2 (Florida)
What makes Florida such a dangerous team is that even if the third line isn’t dominating like they were earlier in the postseason, and they suffer an injury to a key forward like Sam Reinhart, they still have a second line that can win games for them. That happened in Game 2 when the line of Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Carter Verhaeghe combined for three goals and five assists. The team is succeeding at 5-on-5 with that line off the ice (7-1 in goals), but this second line is also carrying the play well regardless. Here is how both the team’s shot attempt share and expected goal share are shaking out with that second line on the ice and off the ice in the Conference Final:
With Reinhart still missing, this line needed to step up their game, and so far, so good.
10 – You’re on the Case, Bobrovsky! (Florida)
Playoff goaltending isn’t about getting elite performances in every game en route to a Cup win; that isn’t realistic. A big part of successful playoff goaltending is getting hot at the right time, and it seems as if Sergei Bobrovsky is doing exactly that. He wasn’t bad through the first two rounds, but by Evolving Hockey’s Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes, Bobrovsky has been significantly better at all strengths so far in the Conference Final than he was in the first two rounds:
Even in the Game 4 loss, Bobrovsky gave up just one goal against, and it was an absolute snipe. If he keeps up this level of play, even improvements in Carolina’s performance won’t be enough to win three more games.
Until next week.
