Newsletter

10 Interesting (To Me) Stats For This Week - October 27, 2024

Each Sunday, this will be a weekly newsletter of NHL stats, data, or viz that are interesting to me at that given moment. It could be a team’s performance at a specific strength, player/line performance, league-wide data, or *shudders* even goalies. This is the first such column for the 2024-25 NHL regular season.

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Data this week from Natural Stat Trick and HockeyViz.

It is no secret that expected goal values has changed as the league has evolved over the last five years. To that end, it’s worth pointing out that last season, at 5v5, there was a stronger correlation between team goals-for and high-danger shot attempts-for than between team goals-for and expected goals-for:
That stronger correlation for HDCF has persisted thus far in 2024-25:
It is always worth keeping in mind that not all data is created equal at various strengths and across different data sources.
So far this season, here are Buffalo’s ranks at 5v5: 3rd by shot attempt share; 8th by high-danger shot attempt share; 11th by actual goal share. They finally scored their first power play goal in their ninth game of the season, a 5-3 win over Detroit. If they can figure out their power play, this could very well be a playoff team.
On Saturday afternoon, Travis Konecny had a five-point game and Matvei Michkov has his second two-point game in a row. With those two on the ice at 5v5, Philadelphia is very much an All Gas/No Brakes team, which is very fun to watch, and great for fantasy:
Keep up the fun, fellas.
Los Angeles has had a very uneven start to the season as they are 5-2-2 but have a negative goal differential. On the bright side, Alex Turcotte has looked very good for the team, and he and Warren Foegele have been beasts on the third line:
Now, if Los Angeles can figure out their top two lines…
I have been trying to say for a couple years now that Elias Lindholm is overrated by a lot of NHL observers. Hell, there were rumours that Vancouver tried to trade him before the Trade Deadline last season after acquiring him in January. Anyway, just thought I’d bring that up considering what Boston’s top duo of he and David Pastrňák have looked like so far this season at 5v5:
Boston is 4-4-1, so it hasn’t been a horrific start for the team, but the top line can’t keep playing like this if they want to be a real contender out of the East.
Montreal has started the season 3-4-1, which isn’t that bad considering the injuries, youth, and rebuilding nature of the team. What is bad is they’re allowing more high-danger shot attempts per minute of 5v5 play than any other team in the league, and one name in particular sticks out:
By high-danger attempts against per minute, Matheson ranks 168th out of 171 defencemen with at least 80 minutes of 5v5 TOI. It is… quite not-good.
Tampa Bay is off to a good start with a 5-3 record and +7 goal differential. A big reason for that good start, aside from Nikita Kucherov, is that the second-line duo of Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli is absolutely crushing the opposition:
By goals scored at 5v5, Tampa Bay is up 7-3 in the minutes with Hagel and Cirelli on the ice. By high-danger shot attempts, it’s a 27-10 advantage. It is, in a word, a shit-kicking.
Washington reloaded in the offseason and one of their big acquisitions was Pierre-Luc Dubois from Los Angeles. In limited action at 5v5 so far this season, the team has done well in his second-line role with Tom Wilson:
The Caps are 5-2, but it’s worth noting two of those wins came against Philadelphia, who does not look very good to start the season and is last in the division by points percentage. All the same, Washington couldn’t ask for more from Dubois as he starts his career again with the Capitals.
Anaheim is a team with a lot of young, high-end talent but there will be growing pains; that is what makes their 3-3-1 start impressive. What has been especially impressive - besides the goaltending - is that Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier have been creating well offensively at 5v5:
They aren’t scoring much yet as the team is shooting 3.5% with them on the ice, but for two young forwards with 70 combined NHL games between them, it’s been very nice to see them showing good process together so far.
Though Calgary has lost three of their last four games, they are still off to a 5-2-1 start and sit third in the Pacific Division by points percentage. A big reason for that is the third line of Jonathan Huberdeau - Martin Pospisil - Anthony Mantha:
With Huberdeau-Pospisil on the ice, Calgary has a 9-4 HD shot advantage and 6-1 goal advantage. They have looked great, and can be a difference-maker for the team is they keep this up.